CPI

Have you ever wondered what exactly goes into the Consumer Price Index? Many people – and certainly the majority of financial institutions and investors ...

Included under “recreation services” you’ll find the surprising inclusion of video rentals, as well as how many “video discs” and other related media were costing consumers. Remember that the next time you have a hot dog. “For example, people presumably did not go out to eat much in 2021,” Swanson pointed out. Wondering how the price of pastry tarts is affecting you and your neighbors? That metric is given a weighted relative importance 0.026 overall. The CPI has you covered, measuring how expense tarts specifically are and whether or not that number has changed substantially. When combined with lunch meats, frankfurters have a weighted relative importance 0.0252. For context, Blockbuster Video shuttered its operations in 2014, but Redbox Automated Retail was acquired by Chicken Soup for the Soul Entertainment in August 2022, keeping video kiosks alive somewhere. Seasonings overall had a weighted relative importance of 0.34 total — olives included. All numbers are from the December 2022 CPI report. Lumped in with fabric and supplies, how sewing machines were priced is all part of the “other recreational goods” portion of the report. For a nation as large as the U.S., looking at that slice of America means items and services included need to be representative of what the country as a whole is experiencing.

The consumer price index was expected to increase 0.4% in January from a month ago and 6.2% on an annual basis, according to Dow Jones.

Markets expect the Fed over its next two meetings in March and May to raise its overnight borrowing rate another half a percentage point from its current target range of 4.5%-4.75%. January's CPI report will take some time to analyze, as the BLS changed its methodology in how it reports the index. That number rose 0.2% in January and was up 4% from a year ago. The Fed also changed how it computes an important component called owners' equivalent rent, a measure of how much property owners could get if they rented. "If retail sales also show strength tomorrow, the Fed may have to increase their funds rate target to 5.5% in order to tame inflation." There's widespread belief that the economy could tip into at least a shallow recession later this year or early in 2023. The component accounts for more than one-third of the index and rose 0.7% on the month and was up 7.9% from a year ago. "Inflation is easing but the path to lower inflation will not likely be smooth," said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial. That has come despite Federal Reserve efforts to quell the problem. The CPI had risen 0.1% in December. Rising prices meant a loss in real pay for workers. economy in danger of slipping into recession this year.

The consumer price index showed firmer price pressures in January, as the annual CPI inflation rate dipped less than expected. The core CPI inflation rate, ...

In January, the CPI proxy for core nonhousing services saw prices rise 0.5% on the month, while the 3-month annualized inflation rate held at 5.6%. The best clue to PCE health services inflation won't come from the CPI but from Thursday's producer price index. After the CPI report, the S&P 500 fell 0.5% in volatile morning trade. Hospital service prices rose 0.5% on the month. The CPI inflation rate eased to 6.4% from 6.5% the prior month vs. The 2-year Treasury yield, which is more linked to Fed decisions, rose 6 basis point to 4.6%. The annual core inflation rate eased to 5.6% vs. The core CPI rose 0.4% vs. The good news for markets that has sparked the current S&P 500 rally attempt is that wage growth has showed a surprising deceleration. The consumer price index showed firmer price pressures in January, as the annual CPI inflation rate dipped less than expected. The core CPI inflation rate peaked at a 40-year-high 6.6% in September. The core CPI inflation rate, which strips out food and energy, also came in hotter than predicted.

U.S. consumer prices increased from the prior month in January but met expectations, while the underlying trend showed inflation is slowing, likely keeping ...

I think what you're going to continue to see and hear is the market to be unsure about what the Fed does next. "So I don't think any of this necessarily in and of itself changes expectations. “I don’t think (this report) moves the needle for the Fed, and I suspect they’re taking a hard look at the data. "Consensus is now in line with the Fed. "I think (this report) justifies the rise in the two-year yields over the last several weeks and a bit of the resetting in the bond market. So, I think in a lot of ways it’s still very easy to make the case that it looks like inflation will continue to soften as the year progresses and I’m sure this comes as an enormous source of relief at the Fed. So, I think that comes as a big source of relief on some level and in the context of shelter has been doing a lot of the damage from an inflation perspective, particularly over recent months. "I think the bond market is right on the short end that two hikes in the next couple of months are warranted. "The shelter component continues to be such a huge driver of inflation … That said, the market has already re-priced in favor of more tightening from the Fed since the release of Jan payrolls.” “The much longed for, and in several places expected, peak in inflation has been postponed again. The big picture is that the inflation data clearly show that the market is too optimistic about inflation dropping enough this year to allow the Fed to start cutting rates.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in hotter than expected even as it appeared that inflation was cooling down at the end of 2022.

Over the past year, the CPI Index increased by 6.4% before adjusting seasonally. Economists anticipate that the Fed is likely to raise its benchmark interest by half a percentage point or 50 basis points versus its current target range from 4.5% to 4.75%. Futures were mixed following the CPI report. Food inflation has been stubborn about falling, with prices soaring by 10.1% year-over-year in January. This was higher than consensus estimates of an increase of 0.4% in January. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in hotter than expected even as it appeared that inflation was cooling down at the end of 2022.

US consumer prices rose briskly at the start of the year, a sign of persistent inflationary pressures that could push the Federal Reserve to raise interest ...

Prices rose 6.4 percent in January compared to the month before, but rose month over month. The Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates.

A top concern is that the remaining sources of inflation — many of which are tied to the hot labor market and rising wages — will be difficult to tame. It’s probably going to be bumpy.” He said that that expectation was confirmed by the unexpectedly hot January jobs report and that if the economic data “continued” to come in stronger than expected, “we would certainly raise rates more” than officials anticipate now. And Goldman Sachs cut the probability that the U.S. Now the Fed is more focused on a narrow measure of inflation that looks at certain services, including education, medical care and hospitality, where wage pressures and labor shortages can keep pushing prices up. The Fed’s base policy rate, known as the federal funds rate, sits between 4.5 and 4.75 percent, a level that is steep enough to slow the economy. “And that is something that is just going to affirm their commitment to continue raising rates at least two times.” Fed leaders are planning for a few more increases of that scale, and then they’ll hold for a while and let high the higher rates take hold. But the Fed keeps repeating that its raising of interest rates to slow the economy is far from over, and there is much that could thwart its future efforts. Rent in January was up 0.7 percent over the month in comparison with 0.8 percent in the previous report. No part of the Fed’s job until now has been easy, and the central bank had to scramble to get inflation down from 40-year highs last year. That’s the good news,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, former head of the Congressional Budget Office and the president of the conservative American Action Forum. But finishing the job requires targeting some of the most persistent sources of inflation and keeping the pressure on.

Last updated: 9:30 AM EST Stocks were in the red on Tuesday as traders digested the CPI numbers. The Nasdaq 100 (NDX), SP 500 (SPX), and Dow Jones ...

The Nikkei and Topix closed up 0.64% and 0.78%, respectively. Chinese indices ended the trading session mixed today ahead of the U.S. The Nasdaq 100 ( The earnings of these companies may likely reflect real consumer spending behavior in an inflationary environment. If the number comes higher than expected, the markets will most likely bleed during the trading session today. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in slightly hotter than expected. Meanwhile, the core CPI number, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 0.4% in January versus expectations of 0.3%, which did not change compared to last month. Meanwhile, Mainland China’s Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indices ended up 0.28% and 0.06%, respectively. Today’s results suggest that the inflation battle is far from over, as we’re not in the clear just yet. This was an increase from last month’s reading of 0.1%. [NDX](https://www.tipranks.com/index/nasdaq-100)), S&P 500 ( [SPX](https://www.tipranks.com/index/spx)), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ( [DJIA](https://www.tipranks.com/index/dow-jones)) are up by 0.8%, 0.4%, and 0.1%, respectively, as of 10:07 a.m. [NDX](https://www.tipranks.com/index/nasdaq-100)), S&P 500 ( [SPX](https://www.tipranks.com/index/spx)), and Dow Jones Industrial Average ( [DJIA](https://www.tipranks.com/index/dow-jones)) are down by 0.8%, 0.6%, and 0.5%, respectively, as of 10:57 a.m.

Tuesday's Consumer Price Index data could hold big clues about the Federal Reserve's future policy moves.

of Anti-Woke, Inc.](https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2023/02/13/anti-woke-ramaswamy-2024-election-00082414),” is eying the presidency. (Politico) [Chinese technology](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/02/13/business/energy-environment/ford-catl-electric-vehicle-battery.html). (NYT) (FT) (Bloomberg) de la Merced](https://www.nytimes.com/by/michael-j-de-la-merced), [Lauren Hirsch](https://www.nytimes.com/by/lauren-hirsch) and One prominent market watcher even [forecasts](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-14/mr-yen-says-ueda-may-raise-rates-by-october-currency-to-gain?srnd=markets-vp) the B.O.J. The carmaker also plans to [cut 3,800 positions](https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-eliminate-3800-engineering-administration-jobs-europe-2023-02-14/)across Europe as it transitions to E.V. [According to Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-02-13/top-us-china-diplomats-weigh-first-meeting-since-balloon-drama?cmpid=BBD021423_MKTEU&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter&utm_term=230214&utm_campaign=marketseurope), Blinken could speak with Wang Yi, China’s top diplomat, at the Munich Security Conference. The Supreme Court will soon decide a case that asks if algorithms that recommend content to users should be defined as editors. A spokesman for committee Republicans told DealBook that Scott wants to balance the need to protect consumers while promoting innovation, the same position as Toomey.

U.S. equity indexes fell and two-year Treasury yields jumped after year-over-year U.S. inflation data came in higher than expected, opening the door to ...

The yen rose following the formal nomination of Kazuo Ueda as the next Bank of Japan governor. It must be said there were some worries around a bad surprise so this is reassuring before the next meeting of the Fed.” And Turkey prepared to channel billions of liras into its stock market, which will reopen Wednesday after the devastating earthquakes Feb. - The Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7 per cent to the highest since Feb. This poses a headwind for equities.” The rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield rose past 4.6 per cent. “If you think inflation is going to stick around for a while, as we do, then it also means the Fed needs to continue to hike until they really destroy demand. This means they need to crack labor. This lag is approximately 12 months, so second half inflation numbers should come down rapidly.” The S&P 500 Index closed nearly flat and the two-year Treasury yield added more than 10 basis points after data showed that inflation remained high. “Core core core core inflation? but we are likely close.”

The Consumer Price Index was higher on the month, but year-over-year gains declined slightly. Markets remain sensitive to what the Federal Reserve could do in ...

The main problem that the rise in the monthly CPI raises is that the Federal Reserve has said that it's looking for signs of consistent disinflationary trends. Food costs were also higher by 0.5% for the month, keeping the annual rise in the food component of the CPI above 10%. The February CPI numbers will come out on March 14, which is immediately before the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 15 and 16. With the current target for fed funds at between 4.5% and 4.75%, yields on six-month Treasury bills jumped above the 5% mark, suggesting a pair of additional quarter-percentage-point increases on the table in the coming months. Higher prices for medical care and apparel outweighed declines in used vehicle prices, and higher shelter and transportation services costs also boosted the core index. Although the headline number was higher than some had expected, the overall trend in year-over-year inflation remained downward, and that seemed to give investors more optimism about the future.

While consumer prices climbed at a 6.4% annual pace in January, marking a slowdown from December, the monthly increase sped up to 0.5%.

Bond traders are keeping their expectations for medium-term US inflation at elevated levels as signs of persistent price pressures suggest the Federal ...

While the rise in the consumer price index for January matched consensus estimates, revisions left year-on-year rates higher than economists expected. The report showed disinflationary momentum in core goods is flagging. Bond traders are keeping their expectations for medium-term US inflation at elevated levels as signs of persistent price pressures suggest the Federal Reserve has more to do in terms of tightening policy.

Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange. NYSE. Stocks wavered Tuesday after the January consumer price index report showed that inflation grew ...

[Palantir](/quotes/PLTR/)— Shares jumped 18% on the back of [quarterly results](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/13/palantir-q4-earnings-2022.html)that came in ahead of analysts' expectations, according to Refinitiv. CNBC Pro subscribers can see what to expect for the entire week [here](https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/10/investors-will-have-their-eyes-on-the-consumer-price-index-in-the-week-ahead.html). [Arista Networks](/quotes/ANET/)— The cloud stock advanced less than 1% after reporting earnings and revenue that came in ahead of the consensus estimate set by analysts polled by Refinitiv. [Coca-Cola](/quotes/KO/) beat revenue expectations for the fourth quarter. [Palantir](/quotes/PLTR/) — Shares of the software company surged 18% in extended trading after Palantir reported it made a profit in the fourth quarter, the first GAAP profit in the company's history. "Instead, it reflects a view that the current valuation is difficult to reconcile with the quality of the underlying assets and cash flow power through a cycle." "That of course is how that market feels today and can always change but for now, only the December 2023/January 2024 fed funds futures contract does a rate below 5% show up and barely," he added. [The S&P 500](/quotes/.SPX/) slipped 0.52%, and the [Nasdaq Composite](/quotes/.IXIC/) ticked 0.80% lower. [Restaurant Brands](/quotes/QSR/) — Shares of the Burger King parent dipped 3% after it reported 72 cents in earnings per share for the fourth quarter, two cents below Wall Street estimates, according to FactSet. That was [slightly higher](#107194186-IMfXLRo8U) than economist estimates of the basket of goods and services rising 0.4% on the month and 6.2% on the year, according to a survey by Dow Jones. "That could be the recipe for a soft landing, but it remains to be seen when the Fed will shift away from rate hikes and if the labor market will lose its resiliency." Before the number was released, JPMorgan's trading desk predicted that an annual increase of 6.4% to 6.5% would trigger an S&P 500 loss of about 1.5% on Tuesday.

Stocks were lower in volatile trading Tuesday after data showed consumer prices cooled in January, but at a slower pace than hoped. The Dow Jones Industrial ...

Investors were watching this data to gauge how much more the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates this year to tame rising prices.\n\nSeveral Fed officials spoke following the release of the CPI report Tuesday about where they think interest rates will go from here.\n\nNew York Fed President John Williams said that he is “confident that the gears of monetary policy will continue to move in a way that will bring inflation down to 2 percent. The two-year yield, a barometer for expectations about the federal funds rate, has climbed in February following both Tuesday’s inflation data and a stronger-than-expected jobs report earlier this month.\n\nIn addition to the CPI report, investors will get retail sales data and jobless claims this week, which are important in understanding the strength of the consumer and the condition of the tight labor market. We will stay the course until our job is done.”\n\nPhiladelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said that at some point in 2023, he expects “the policy rate will be restrictive enough that we will hold rates in place and let monetary policy do its work.”\n\nIn an interview with Bloomberg TV Tuesday, Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said that the CPI results came in about as expected, but inflation is coming down slowly and “there is going to be a lot more inertia—a lot more persistence to inflation than maybe we’d all want.”\n\nThe Fed tightened financial conditions at a dramatic pace over the past year in a bid to dampen decades-high inflation—a key factor behind last year’s market selloff.

The U.S. Labor Department reported a 6.4% year-over-year increase in CPI for January, marking the fourth straight lower print.

[data](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm) from the U.S. The January CPI reading came in above average [economist estimates](https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/02/30879941/market-performance-on-valentines-day-this-time-itll-be-different-and-inflation-is-why) of 6.2%. Tuesday’s highly anticipated CPI inflation reading comes on the heels of two consecutive [originally published](https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/02/30890087/inflation-continues-to-cool-but-at-slower-pace-than-economists-predicted-stocks-struggle-to-price-in) on Benzinga and appears here with permission. [policy downshifts ](https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/02/30651947/federal-reserve-downshifts-to-0-25-central-banks-pace-of-interest-rate-hikes-slows-with-inflation)from the Federal Reserve. [Economic Club of Washington, D.C.](https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/02/30775031/the-market-cant-make-up-its-mind-neither-can-the-federal-reserve-why-fed-chair-jerome-powell-says-ce) last week, Powell said the Fed remains data-dependent. [four straight 0.75% rate hikes](https://www.benzinga.com/news/22/11/29529781/federal-reserve-issues-fourth-straight-0-75-interest-rate-hike-heres-what-the-fed-says-comes-next-in), the Fed opted for a 0.5% increase in December and then raised rates by just 0.25% [at its last meeting](https://www.benzinga.com/news/23/02/30651947/federal-reserve-downshifts-to-0-25-central-banks-pace-of-interest-rate-hikes-slows-with-inflation). [CME ](https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html)Group data. [Fed’s](https://thedalesreport.com/trends/federal-reserve-raises-its-benchmark-rate-by-0-25/) next decision on rates is due March 22. Following the print, the bond market is signaling a 87.8% chance of a 0.25% hike and a 12.2% chance of a 0.5% hike. The bond market was projecting a 90.8% chance of a subsequent 0.25% hike in March and a 9.2% chance of a 0.5% hike ahead of the CPI release, according to [SPY](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/spy) [is volatile Tuesday morning after the Labor Department reported a 6.4% year-over-year increase in the ](https://www.benzinga.com/quote/spy) [consumer price index (CPI) for January](https://www.benzinga.com/topic/inflation), marking the fourth straight lower print.

“The Fed will see more evidence accumulating that inflation is decelerating despite a stronger than anticipated labor market,” wrote Morgan Stanley economists ...

The biggest risk, however, is that the Fed overtightens in response to that "rear view" inflation story--which, if anything, now looks more likely after today's CPI report. "The Fed will see more evidence accumulating that inflation is decelerating despite a stronger than anticipated labor market," wrote Morgan Stanley economists after the report. Personally, I notice the sticker shock moving from the grocery store and gas pump, to services that unfortunately can be much costlier to begin with. Which means the annualized rate fell from 6% to nearly 4%, a big difference to the Fed. Because it tries to tell us how much the tight labor market is continuing to feed broader inflationary pressures, versus the one-off pandemic spike in things like goods and real estate. CPI rose 6.4% year-on-year, which is better than the 9% peak last summer, but still hotter than expected.