Sudden stratospheric warming

2023 - 2 - 9

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Image courtesy of "The Washington Post"

How a predicted polar-vortex disruption could spur winter's revenge (The Washington Post)

Forecasters are watching changes in the stratosphere that could trigger a shake-up in the mild weather pattern over the Eastern U.S. and Europe.

Under ordinary circumstances, the stratospheric polar vortex spins like an unperturbed top, minding its business and keeping cold air bottled up high in the Arctic. Simon Lee, an atmospheric scientist at Columbia University, said in an email it “would be the first major sudden stratospheric warming” since Jan. Cautionary note that the GFS seems to be on the extreme end of ensemble solutions, however.— Dr Simon Lee (@SimonLeeWx) Butler noted that’s within the 10-day time frame in which these events “can be skillfully predicted,” but she cautioned “there is still considerable uncertainty in how things will evolve.” [“beast from the east”](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/02/23/europe-braces-for-beast-from-the-east-cold-snap-potentially-the-most-severe-in-5-years/?itid=lk_inline_manual_15) — invaded Europe, delivering the coldest weather in years. The Southern Hemisphere has its own polar vortex over Antarctica. In late February, a punishing blast of Siberian air — dubbed the The cold didn’t retreat [until late April](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/05/09/april-in-the-u-s-was-remarkably-cold-in-the-midst-of-global-warming/?itid=lk_inline_manual_15) in some areas. But then the stratosphere suddenly warmed, the polar vortex fractured and weather mayhem unfolded over much of Europe and eastern Northern America. Although such a spike in temperatures may not sound like something that will bring winter to life, this phenomenon is known for disrupting the polar vortex. Some result in only mild alterations to the prevailing weather pattern. Most of the Eastern U.S.

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Image courtesy of "Axios"

An event high above the Arctic may turn winter sharply colder in U.S. ... (Axios)

"The SSW looks quite certain at this point," Amy Butler, a NOAA meteorologist, told Axios via email. How it works: Such events can occur when large atmospheric ...

and Western Europe in late February into March. and Europe — typically a week to several weeks later. The bottom line: A strong stratospheric warming event is likely to take place next week, and there is the potential for high impact shifts in weather patterns to affect Europe and parts of the U.S. Zoom in: Judah Cohen, director of seasonal forecasting at AER in Massachusetts, said the jury is still out on exactly how the disruption of the stratospheric warming event will affect the weather in the U.S. - Over time, sudden stratospheric warming events are known to influence the troposphere below, which can affect the weather in the U.S. - The vertical transport of energy can rapidly warm the stratosphere and set in motion a disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex, which is a circle of strong winds surrounding an area of low pressure above the Pole.

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Image courtesy of "RTE.ie"

Will a 'sudden stratospheric warming' event bring snow and ice? (RTE.ie)

The weather event which is forecast to occur over the next week is seen as 'one of the most extreme of atmospheric phenomena'

"Global weather models can usually forecast, quite accurately, what is going to happen in the polar stratosphere one to two weeks in advance, so the upcoming event is highly likely. "It's not yet clear why some stratospheric warming events take weeks to impact the surface while others are felt days later, but it may be related to how the polar vortex changes around the onset of a warming event. "Where the jet stream crosses the Atlantic, it usually points towards Ireland and Britain, but sudden stratospheric warming can lead it to shift towards the equator. Please review their details and accept them to load the content. The average wind direction around the pole may also reverse, in which case a "sudden stratospheric warming" event has occurred. We are likely to be hearing a lot about a weather phenomenon called a 'sudden stratospheric warming' event that is forecast to take place over the next week.

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Image courtesy of "The Irish Times"

Ireland could see heavy snow and cold in coming weeks due to ... (The Irish Times)

Forecasters have said there is a major Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event forecast to occur over the next week. An SSW is a weather phenomenon where the ...

“Therefore, for now, it is unresolved how the upcoming SSW event will affect the weather patterns over north-western Europe. “Every SSW event is different and not all of them disrupt the tropospheric patterns below. Major SSW events increase the likelihood for colder than average weather over northern and north-western Europe for several weeks to a few months after the event, but do not guarantee it.

Heavy snow warning: ELEVEN INCHES to blanket parts of Britain as ... (GB News)

Heavy snow and sub-zero temperatures similar to the Beast from the East are set to blast Britain.

How to watch GB News: We're live on TV on Virgin channel 604, Freesat 216, Sky 512, Freeview 236, YouView 236. -

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Image courtesy of "Irish Examiner"

Q&A: What is a Sudden Stratospheric Warning and how will it affect ... (Irish Examiner)

Irish weather experts and forecasters have been put on high alert for the possibility of snow in the next few weeks, thanks to models showing an increased ...

Mr Moore added: "Therefore, for now, it is unresolved how the upcoming SSW event will affect the weather patterns over north-western Europe. "Forecasting how a SSW event imprints on the tropospheric weather patterns below is much more difficult to resolve, especially prior to the SSW event itself." The UK's Met Office has said there is now "an over 80% chance of a major SSW occurring" across the UK and Ireland in the next few weeks.

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Image courtesy of "The Independent"

Snow not forecast yet but UK braced for sudden stratospheric warming (The Independent)

A predicted big freeze caused by a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event is still several days away for much of the UK, forecasts have suggested.

[Met Office](/topic/met-office) said: “[Saturday] will generally be dry but often cloudy throughout the day. It is a similar situation in the south west, although the mercury has been predicted to bottom out in Plymouth at around 5C into the mid week with similar highs to London expected. “[It will be] dry through Sunday and Monday, with some bright or sunny spells and mainly light winds, but maybe a little breezier later Monday.

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Image courtesy of "HITC"

'Sudden Stratospheric Warmings' in 2023 explained amid harsh ... (HITC)

Indication of a major 'Sudden Stratospheric Warmings' in 2023 has left people in the UK dreading lengthy wintry nights.

This results in Northern Europe including the UK experiencing lengthy winters and if you’re unlucky, it may snow heavily like the previous year. [wrote](https://twitter.com/Willard1951/status/1623753058541875203) another. Which would mean winter is NOT over,” An SSW is the process of rapid warming above the earth’s surface. Meanwhile, experts have expressed there is no reason to expect a cold storm similar to Beast from the East in 2018. [tweeted](https://twitter.com/debandychas2004/status/1623580647653605376) one.

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Image courtesy of "Yahoo News UK"

Could Sudden Stratospheric Warming cause 'Beast from the East 2 ... (Yahoo News UK)

“The recent minor SSW weakened the Stratospheric Polar Vortex and it's now likely to collapse and reverse in the middle of February.” The forecaster explained: ...

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