Recession

Collecting a bunch of numbers about the economy in real-ish time—the car purchases, the single-family-housing investments, the furniture imports, and the iPhone ...

But in the meantime, it’s the numbers that matter, not the nomenclature. Phenomenologically, it doesn’t change anything about your life—not the price of the coffee, not the wage of the barista, and not the income in your pocket. This economy is pretty crummy for a lot of people. Collecting a bunch of numbers about the economy in real-ish time—the car purchases, the single-family-housing investments, the furniture imports, and the iPhone exports—is grueling and complex work for the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Factoring in the error margins, there is still roughly a 50 percent chance that the economy grew in the first six months of this year. That’s one good reason to avoid the “are we in a recession?” debate entirely. President Joe Biden has assured the public that the U.S. economy is not actually in a recession, while conservative media will surely use today’s report to state confidently that it is.

A years-old tweet from CNN White House correspondent John Harwood has gotten new life this week — always a sign that someone, somewhere is hoping to score ...

Recognizing that defending Harwood and White would prompt people to dig up occasions on which I might have described a recession as being necessarily tied to two quarters of economic slowdown, I went ahead and did the search. But since he used two quarters of decline and nothing else as his trigger for that announcement, it was portrayed as hypocritical. But the declaration of a recession has political repercussions that the White House hopes to avoid — and its critics hope to elevate. At that point, he pointed to GDP declines as an indication that “we are in a recession right now” — which we were. Much of this debate centers on the distinction between a rule of thumb and a rule. It’s the difference between walking off the size of a room and measuring it accurately.

Of course, it's not pleasant when the economy contracts and people lose their jobs, savings and investments. However, you can't simply look at the job market, ...

Then, the cycle will start all over again. However, if history repeats, it may take some time, but Americans will soon see better days. Recessions happen on a regular basis, as it's part of the capitalistic cycle. For example, a small investment of $100 in the S&P 500, at the beginning of 2009, would have represented a 582.13% return on your investment by the 2021 year-end. In this case, due to interventions by the U.S. federal government and Federal Bank actions, it only took about six months to climb back up again. The U.S. had a housing bubble that lead to a subprime mortgage crisis. In 1987, the “Black Monday” October crash happened. As other people are downsized, you may be able to recruit talent for your emerging enterprise. There is a feeling of, “It’s so bad that it can’t get any worse, so I might as well take the shot.” - Airbnb (2007-2009 Recession) - Uber (2007-2009 Recession) Currently, the big concern and preoccupation for people is whether or not the U.S. will be heading into a recession.

New data out of the United States shows the world's largest economy shrank in both the first and second quarters of 2022, which is the minimum requirement ...

Even with the economy recording a second straight quarter of negative GDP, many economists do not regard it as constituting a recession. Recession risks have been growing as the Fed's policy-makers have pursued a campaign of rate hikes that will likely extend into 2023. The inflation surge and fear of a recession have eroded consumer confidence and stirred public anxiety about the economy, which is sending frustratingly mixed signals. The Labor Department's consumer price index skyrocketed 9.1 per cent in June from a year earlier, a pace not matched since 1981. That was the fastest calendar-year expansion since 1984, reflecting how vigorously the economy roared back from the brief but brutal pandemic recession of 2020. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and many economists have said that while the economy is showing some weakening, they doubt it's in recession.

In an aerial view, shipping containers sit idle at the Port of Oakland on July 21, 2022 in Oakland, California. Truckers protesting California labor law ...

Earlier this month, the White House raised some hackles when it released a blog post insisting the economy is not in a recession. "I've never seen anything like it in terms of just the anticipation of this bad economy that's dead ahead. "Policymakers will no doubt be tying themselves in knots trying to explain why the U.S. economy is not in recession. Higher interest rates, persistent inflation, and a historically sour mood on behalf of consumers and businesses pose major dangers ahead. It's about as dark as I've ever seen it," said Zandi, the Moody's economist. At the end of the day, a recession is a loss of faith. "If this definition feels involved, it's because it is," Tim Quinlan, senior economist at Wells Fargo, said in a client note earlier this week. "Yet real consumer spending continued to forge ahead and the job market still has legs. In fact, every time since 1948 that GDP has fallen for at least two straight quarters, the NBER ultimately has declared a recession. "What we have right now doesn't seem like" a recession, Powell said. "I just don't see them declaring a recession." It is too early call the end of this expansion, but the hour is fast approaching."

La contraction du PIB est de 0,9% en rythme annualisé, mesure privilégiée par les États-Unis, qui compare au trimestre précédent puis projette l'évolution sur l ...

La banque centrale américaine, la Fed, a de nouveau relevé drastiquement ses taux directeurs mercredi pour ralentir volontairement l'activité économique en diminuant la pression sur les prix. Le président de la Fed, Jerome Powell, a de nouveau assuré mercredi «qu'il existait une voie pour abaisser l'inflation tout en soutenant un marché de l'emploi solide», estimant que l'économie américaine «n'était pas en récession maintenant», malgré «un ralentissement des dépenses». Nous «considérons une série d'indicateurs», détaille sur son site le NBER, qui observe également «l'ampleur du déclin de l'activité». Pour elle, l'état de l'activité économique du pays traduit «une économie en transition vers une croissance plus stable et plus durable». «La plupart des économistes et la plupart des Américains ont une définition similaire de la récession: des pertes d'emplois substantielles et des licenciements massifs [...] ce n'est pas ce que nous voyons en ce moment», a affirmé la secrétaire au Trésor lors d'une conférence de presse, soulignant la création de plus d'un million d'emplois au cours des trois derniers mois. «Cela ne ressemble pas à une récession, selon moi», a réagi le président Biden, mettant en avant un marché de l'emploi et des investissements d'entreprises «record».

La publication des derniers chiffres du PIB américain, en recul pour le deuxième trimestre consécutif, a entraîné outre-atlantique une dispute sémantique, ...

La baisse du produit intérieur brut (PIB) signalée jeudi par le département du Commerce faisait suite à un recul annualisé de 1,6 % pour le trimestre de janvier ...

Et la faire ralentir nécessite un refroidissement de l’activité économique. Le FMI a de son côté révisé fortement à la baisse sa prévision de croissance pour les États-Unis en 2022, et ne table désormais plus que sur 2,3% (quand elle anticipait encore 3,7% en avril). Le recul du PIB «renforce la stagflation (stagnation de l’activité et inflation, NDLR), et déclenche l’alerte rouge pour la récession», avertit au contraire sur Twitter l’économiste Mohamed El-Erian, président du Queens’ College de l’Université de Cambridge, et conseiller économique de l’assureur Allianz. Le recul du PIB au deuxième trimestre reflète la baisse des investissements des entreprises, et des achats de logements de la part des ménages, a précisé le département du Commerce. Les gouvernements, tant fédéraux que locaux, ont également freiné leurs dépenses. «Nous devrions éviter une bataille sémantique», a affirmé Mme Yellen. «Parfois, les gens utilisent le mot récession pour dire qu’il s’agit vraiment d’une mauvaise inflation». Il accuse aussi les démocrates de «(préférer) redéfinir la récession que de restaurer une économie en bonne santé».

La définition communément admise de la récession correspond à deux trimestres consécutifs de recul du PIB. (Washington) Le produit intérieur brut (PIB) des ...

Et la faire ralentir nécessite un refroidissement de l’activité économique. Le FMI a de son côté révisé fortement à la baisse sa prévision de croissance pour les États-Unis en 2022, et ne table désormais plus que sur 2,3 % (quand elle anticipait encore 3,7 % en avril). Le PIB américain s’était contracté de 3,4 % en 2020 sous l’effet de la crise de la COVID-19, avant de rebondir de 5,7 % en 2021. Le recul du PIB « renforce la stagflation (stagnation de l’activité et inflation, NDLR), et déclenche l’alerte rouge pour la récession », avertit au contraire sur Twitter l’économiste Mohamed El-Erian, président du Queens’College de l’Université de Cambridge, et conseiller économique de l’assureur Allianz. Le recul du PIB au deuxième trimestre reflète la baisse des investissements des entreprises, et des achats de logements de la part des ménages, a précisé le département du Commerce. Les gouvernements, tant fédéral que locaux, ont également freiné leurs dépenses. (Washington) Le produit intérieur brut (PIB) des États-Unis s’est de nouveau contracté au deuxième trimestre, ce qui accroît les risques de voir la première économie du monde plonger dans la récession, à quelques mois d’une élection clé pour Joe Biden.

While there are signs of a hiring cooldown and impending layoffs, it's still a workers' job market out there, even in the tech industry.

If you get cold feet, you can always decline the offer, she noted. And an ability to advance quickly at the company also opens up more opportunities, reducing the chance you’d find yourself on the chopping block during tough times, he noted. It’s a good idea to ask detailed questions about the future of the company and your role in it, he added. That’s only 5 per cent lower than early May, the company’s seasonally adjusted data show. “And on the other hand, it’s like hospitals, front-line service, customer support are all completely understaffed.” For more than a year, Canada’s record labour shortage has held the promise of generous pay bumps for those willing to switch jobs.

While most economists — and Fed Chair Jerome Powell — have said they don't think the economy is in recession, many increasingly expect an economic downturn to ...

For the past two weeks, the yield on the two-year Treasury has exceeded the 10-year yield, suggesting that markets expect a recession soon. The clearest signal that a recession is under way, economists say, would be a steady rise in job losses and a surge in unemployment. The economy’s flashing signals — slowing growth with strong hiring — have put the Fed in a tough spot. Many analysts say, though, that comparing the 3-month yield to the 10-year has a better recession-forecasting track record. The Fed’s rapid rate hikes have raised the likelihood of recession in the next two years to nearly 50 percent, Goldman Sachs economists have said. Still, it can take 18 to 24 months for a downturn to arrive after the yield curve inverts. Still, in the past, it has been a useful measure. Yet the NBER typically doesn’t declare a recession until well after one has begun, sometimes for up to a year. If the economy were to lose jobs and the public were to grow more fearful, consumers would further reduce spending. Many economists expect that when GDP is revised later this year, the first quarter may even turn out to be positive. The pain is being felt disproportionately by lower-income and Black and Hispanic households, many of whom are struggling to pay for higher-cost essentials like food, gas and rent. And the unemployment rate has sunk to 3.6 percent, near a half-century low.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative ...

She did not discuss the impact that monetary and fiscal stimulus had on price pressures. Consumer and business confidence levels have plunged, with recent surveys showing a solid majority of Americans believe the country is in recession. "We know there are challenges ahead of us. The National Bureau of Economic Research, however, is the official arbiter of recessions, and likely won't rule for months. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative growth. - Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy is in a state of transition, not recession.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen gave a glass-half-full assessment of the US economy, acknowledging a slowdown that she called necessary to tame inflation ...

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Thursday the U.S. economy doesn't appear to be in a recession despite two straight quarters of negative gross domestic ...

Yellen, however, said the administration should avoid “a semantic battle” over the economy and focus on how to fix it. Instead, economists turn to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a think tank not affiliated with the government, to make that call. “This is pressure that’s real, that we recognize, and it’s the president’s top priority to bring inflation down.” While two negative quarters has long been a rule of thumb for figuring out when the U.S. is in recession, economists also consider job growth and other areas of the economy when making that judgment. Consumer spending has also continued to rise throughout the decline in GDP, and wages rose 5.1 percent last month alone. Yellen acknowledged that households still face “great stress” from high inflation, which reached an annual rate of 9.1 percent in June, according to Labor Department data.

A shrinking GDP doesn't automatically equal an economy in recession. Here's why economists are so hesitant to put a label on this topsy-turvy economy.

The Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis estimates the value of goods and services produced in the economy through an initial set of data that it gathers. The GDI for the second quarter will be released next month, giving a better view of how income levels have fared during this period. “This is not a good GDP report,” Furman said. The economy added a healthy 372,000 non-farm jobs in June, surpassing expectations. It didn’t declare the recession that began in April 2001 until July 2003. Officially, it is the National Bureau of Economic Research’s Business Cycle Dating Committee that declares a recession. But if you look at the unemployment rate, it is very low,” Swanson said. The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee takes a cautious approach to its job. It was the shortest recession in U.S. history. Weighing against the evidence of slowdowns in consumer spending and business investment are other data including, crucially, robust job growth. Yet the last recession declared by NBER — for the period from March to April 2020, when the country was hit by the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic — met only the first half of that definition. Back-to-back quarters of negative growth is one commonly used benchmark of recession.

This morning we learned that economic growth was negative for the first six months of 2022. So how does the NBER define recessions and will it matter to ...

Nonetheless, while naming a recession is a debate, the economic situation in the U.S. for 2022 so far is pretty clear. So we’ll have to wait some time to see if the NBER call this a recession. So if this is a recession it’s a shallow one, at least so far. Depth of the decline remains a key question. Two quarters of negative growth, as we’ve seen so far in 2022, is a good rule of thumb for identifying recessions. With the Q1 report, that means the first half of 2022 has seen negative growth, even if the second quarter was a slight improvement on the first.

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FED EYES THE FREEZER AISLE — From NYT’s Jeanna Smialek and Emily Erdos: “If consumers and companies expect fast inflation to be a permanent feature of the American economy, they might begin to shift their behavior in ways that cause prices to keep rising. MAJOR HEALTH CARE COST DRIVER — From WSJ’s David Wainer: “The traveling-nurse market might finally be coming back down to earth. From NYT’s Mike Isaac: “On Wednesday, Meta, the company formerly known as Facebook, reported a 1 percent decline in quarterly revenue from the previous year. MARKET REACTS — From Bloomberg’s Rita Nazareth: “About 85% of the S&P 500 companies rose, while the Nasdaq 100 soared over 4%, the most since November 2020. CBO PROJECTION — AP’s Josh Boak: “The Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that the end of pandemic-era spending, fast economic growth and higher tax revenues have caused the federal debt this year to be lower than forecast. Debt-related pressures have faded somewhat in the short-term for lawmakers, even as they continue to loom as a troubling risk for future congresses and presidents.” Per POLITICO’s Burgess Everett the deal “ includes roughly $370 billion in energy and climate spending, $300 billion in deficit reduction, three years of subsidies for Affordable Care Act premiums, prescription drug reform and significant tax changes." But the nonpartisan office also includes a warning in its 30-year outlook about how debt will soon spiral upward to new highs that could ultimately imperil the U.S. economy. But he did NOT say that the Fed would back off or reverse course if the economy does start to significantly weaken — something markets increasingly seem to expect. “The public doesn't distinguish between core or headline inflation in their thinking,” he said. That may make the numbers appear worse than they are. Act on the news with POLITICO Pro.

Le département du Commerce a précisé que le recul du PIB au deuxième trimestre reflétait des baisses d'investissements des entreprises et d'achats de logements ...

L'inflation a atteint un nouveau record en juin, à 9,1% sur un an. Le FMI a de son côté révisé fortement à la baisse sa prévision de croissance des États-Unis pour 2022, et ne table désormais plus que sur 2,3% (quand elle anticipait encore 3,7% en avril), avançant «une croissance plus faible en début d'année». Nous «considérons une série d'indicateurs», détaille sur son site le NBER, qui observe également «l'ampleur du déclin de l'activité». Elles observaient cependant que «le ralentissement de la demande intérieure confirme que l'économie ralentit rapidement dans un contexte d'inflation obstinément élevée et de resserrement agressif de la Fed». Son président Jerome Powell a de nouveau assuré mercredi «qu'il existait une voie pour abaisser l'inflation tout en soutenant un marché de l'emploi solide», estimant que l'économie américaine «n'était pas en récession maintenant», malgré «un ralentissement des dépenses». «La plupart des économistes et la plupart des Américains ont une définition similaire de la récession: des pertes d'emplois substantielles et des licenciements massifs (...) ce n'est pas ce que nous voyons en ce moment», a affirmé la Secrétaire au Trésor lors d'une conférence de presse, soulignant les plus d'un million d'emplois créés sur les trois derniers mois.

NEW YORK — The prospect of a U.S. recession could mean more pain for battered stocks, despite a recent rebound that has taken the benchmark index to its…

Peron likes shares of healthcare and software companies in the current environment, as well as real estate investment trusts. UBS Global Wealth Management earlier this month said the S&P 500 could fall to 3,300 in such a scenario, an 18% decline from Wednesday’s close. Some investors have also pointed to data showing the economy remains on solid footing. To be sure, not everyone believes the U.S. economy is in a recession. Data on Thursday showed the U.S. economy contracted for the second straight quarter – fulfilling an often-cited definition of a recession. Article content

Here's the Big Thing to know today: The US economy shrank in the second quarter of the year, and that does indeed meet the unofficial criteria for being in ...

"I'm not a fan of either merger," Keyes said. Economists say the biggest reason it would be premature to call a recession based on Thursday's numbers is that the data can and probably will change. "It's clear that over the past two years, the combination of the pandemic, record low mortgage rates and the opportunity to work remotely spurred greater demand," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac's chief economist. Frontier was all set to acquire Spirit with a $2.8 billion cash-and-stock deal. That's because Spirit and Frontier, with their ultra-low-cost business models, serve an important role in forcing larger airlines to cut prices. Something's off, of course, but your doctor isn't going to isn't going to give you a diagnoses if they don't actually know what's wrong with you (or we hope they wouldn't, anyway.) That is still significantly higher than this time last year when it was 2.8%. Take the GDP data with a grain of salt, as Powell put it yesterday. A lot of economists, plus President Joe Biden and Fed Chief Jerome Powell, say it's not likely. The debate about "recession" vs "not recession" is mostly semantics, but I get it — it's comforting to be able to put a label on things as a shorthand for everything that feels crummy. "Now, as the market adjusts to a higher rate environment, we are seeing a period of deflated sales activity until the market normalizes." - For starters, every single one of the eight members is White, and in fact the panel has never included a person of color, according to Gary Hoover, co-chair of the American Economic Association Committee on the Status of Minority Groups in the Economics Profession.

Some economists call two consecutive quarters of contraction a technical recession. And with good reason: 10 out of the last 10 times the US economy shrank for ...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday said that he does not think the economy is currently in recession, but yield curves say something else. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in July for the third straight month. Household spending grew in June by 1.1%, up from a revised 0.3% increase in May, the Commerce Department reported on Friday. In the 11 times the Fed raised rates, the Fed has successfully avoided recession only three times. in the second quarter, but a slowdown in inventory accumulation removed a whopping 2 percentage points from output. It has yet to use the "recession" label. In May, there were about two open positions for every job seeker, along with historically low levels of layoffs. Consumer spending, the largest part of the US economy, is rising. Last year, businesses stocked up on goods to get ahead of supply chain woes and in anticipation of post-Covid consumer demand, but now they may be overstocked. It also signals that consumer demand could be weakening, another sign of this week, raising fears that the country has entered -- or will soon enter -- recession territory. Some economists call two consecutive quarters of contraction a technical recession.

Le département du Commerce a précisé que le recul du PIB au deuxième trimestre reflétait des baisses d'investissements des entreprises et d'achats de logements ...

Le PIB de l’économie américaine pourrait même rebondir d’ici la fin de l’année si de nouveaux progrès se réalisent dans la résolution des défis des chaînes d’approvisionnement, et que les fortes commandes de biens durables se poursuivent parallèlement à un rebond continu de la demande dans les services. Les consommateurs et les entreprises ont lutté sous le poids de la répression de l’inflation et de la hausse des coûts d’emprunt. Mercredi, la Réserve fédérale (Fed) a relevé son taux directeur de trois quarts de point pour la deuxième fois d’affilée, dans le but de vaincre la pire flambée d’inflation en 40 ans. Un seul organisme est habilité aux États-Unis à désigner officiellement les périodes de récession, le Bureau national de la recherche économique (NBER), mais cela intervient avec plusieurs mois de retard. « Même si cette deuxième contraction d’affilée du PIB trimestriel alimente le débat sur le début d’une récession aux États-Unis, le fait que l’économie a créé 2,7 millions d’emplois durant les six premiers mois de l’année semble encore plaider contre la déclaration officielle d’une récession. Pour le moment, on constate que l’économie américaine s’essouffle rapidement face à une inflation record en quatre décennies et une augmentation rapide des coûts d’emprunt (taux d’intérêt). L’économie américaine est devenue très vulnérable à une récession, ce qui pourrait dissuader la Fed de décréter une troisième hausse importante des taux d’intérêt en septembre. « Malgré cette deuxième baisse d’affilée du PIB trimestriel, la vigueur du marché du travail aux États-Unis empêche de définir cela comme une récession ; parlons plutôt d’une déception. En fait, comme lors du premier trimestre, la mesure du revenu intérieur brut pourrait fournir une alternative au PIB. Cette mesure s’affiche encore en croissance en fin de deuxième trimestre. Pour elle, l’état de l’activité économique du pays traduit « une économie en transition vers une croissance plus stable et durable ». L’opposition ne l’entend cependant pas de cette oreille. La production industrielle a augmenté de 6,2 % sur un an au deuxième trimestre, et l’économie a créé 1,1 million d’emplois. Les ventes au détail sont toujours à des niveaux bien supérieurs à ceux d’avant la pandémie. N’empêche, la hausse de l’inflation et des taux d’intérêt pourrait ralentir la croissance économique. La Fed reste sur une trajectoire de forte hausse des taux pour lutter contre l’inflation, ce qui contribuera à ralentir les dépenses de consommation. De mon point de vue, l’économie américaine n’est pas en récession au vu des récents gains d’emplois et de la croissance continue de la production industrielle. Je m’attends également à ce que le marché du travail américain s’affaiblisse et que le taux de chômage augmente d’ici la fin de l’année prochaine. Pour le moment, jusqu’à ce que l’inflation diminue, de nouvelles hausses de taux demeurent dans les cartes. Avec le marché du travail qui demeure vigoureux, les récents problèmes de l’économie américaine n’empêcheront pas la Réserve fédérale (Fed) de poursuivre sa lutte contre l’inflation élevée. Je m’attends à d’autres augmentations des taux d’intérêt aux États-Unis dans les mois à venir, quoique à un rythme plus modéré. » Pour la suite, je m’attends à ce que l’économie américaine puisse revenir en territoire positif dès le prochain trimestre, grâce notamment à un renversement favorable du côté des [stocks] dans les entreprises.

Economic expansion in France and Spain beat expectations by a distance, putting them on a firmer footing as surging inflation and the risk of a Russian ...

Confidence among French households has been declining for seven straight months and hit its lowest level since 2013 in July. “Today’s reading confirms France has largely recovered from the shock of the pandemic, but the war in Ukraine and accompanying energy crisis are weighing heavily on the outlook. But proximity to the war in Ukraine is also fueling uncertainty that’s holding back investment. What’s more, the current “tariff shield” is set to expire at year-end. Economists had expected a 6.7% advance in the EU harmonized measure. Tourism provided the strongest growth impetus, even as household consumption dropped. The cost-of-living squeeze has prompted Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez to propose a windfall tax on profits at energy firms and banks, to fund fuel subsidies and provide other aid. Click TECO for more of today’s main economic news. Europe’s outlook for the coming months is extraordinarily uncertain. Analysts see a small gain of 0.2%. In Spain, gross domestic product jumped by 1.1% — almost three times the estimated pace. Article content

A second-straight quarterly decline in GDP meets a widely cited definition for recession. Experts say the economy isn't there quite yet.

But if you're investing for a long-term goal, such as retirement, now's a great time to continue to consistently invest in the market. "It's hard to call it a major economic contraction." If you're not worried about yourself, maybe you don't need to worry that much." The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is in charge of declaring recessions and expansions and likely won't make a judgment for months. "Great," you may be thinking. And when it does, GDP — a broad measure of economic activity — will only be one of the many factors the bureau's economists will consider.

The 19 countries that use the euro as their currency — which account for nearly a fifth of the world's economic output — grew a bit faster, at 4% and 0.7% ...

And, if a shortage of energy tips the region into recession, the central bank could be forced to abruptly stop hiking rates, hampering its ability to keep fighting inflation. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February, and the sanctions that followed The International Monetary Fund said last week that a complete shut off of Russia's gas could shrink GDP in Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic — countries particularly reliant on Moscow's exports — by as much as 6%. The chances of a recession in Europe ratcheted up earlier this week when Russia — historically its single biggest supplier of energy — cut natural gas deliveries through a key pipeline. A survey of European fund managers by Bank of America published last week found that 86% of respondents expect a recession over the next year, up from 54% in June. Inflation continued to push higher.

But as of July 25 any mention of 'two negative consecutive quarters of GDP growth' was removed from this section. The page now also has a lock sign on the top ...

Wikipedia is a collaborative work in progress–yes, one that these days does not follow its own stated policy of neutrality–and there has been a flurry of back-and-forth editing on that article in recent days. These changes were made during the week that the White House published a blog querying the existing definition of a recession. Well they changed the definition of ‘vaccine’ so they could call the mRNA gene therapy a vaccine and pretend it was something safe and tested. I am the last one on earth who would support what the current POTUS is doing, or what Wiki does, but to be completely honest, they are correct in this case. White House officials have tried to limit discussions about a recession, suggesting that many parts of the economy remain strong. The page now also has a lock sign on the top right, which means the page cannot be edited.

If the Fed, treasury secretary and president all offered a present and future of lower expectations, including continued high inflation, a recession and job ...

To combat the doom and gloom, make a practice of staying positive. You want to tap into the people you know and trust for job leads. It's easy to succumb to the never-ending barrage of negative news. Twitter is a valuable medium to share your expertise and wisdom, attract an audience and let them know about your search efforts. The one thing you have is the ability to manage and drive your own career. Explain why you are seeking a new role and concisely share the responsibilities you held at your last couple of jobs. You need to know the differences, so you won’t get offended if a retained recruiter ignores your reach out. Send invitations to people who may have access to the jobs you desire. LinkedIn is an excellent way to start if you are a mid to senior-level, white-collar professional. It would be naive to think that the litany of woes, such as supply chain disruptions, inflation eating into your paycheck and savings, an endless war in Eastern Europe, constant political in-fighting and a steady flow of announced downsizing, won’t impact your job and career. If the Fed, treasury secretary and president all offered a present and future of lower expectations, including continued high inflation, a recession and job losses, businesses would pick up on their lead and engage in massive cost-cutting initiatives to remain solvent. It doesn’t matter if the United States is in a recession or not.

Will there be a recession? And, if so, just how bad will it be for my finances? Those questions are looming large for Americans after the Federal Reserve ...

So instead of buying new equipment or hiring a full-time staffer to take advantage of a new business opportunity today, consider renting the equipment or bringing someone in as a contractor. Or, you might consider a new role that is less susceptible to layoffs when the economy is contracting. ... We'll be back to a place where it matters if your home is in good shape," Fratantoni said. What you can do is figure out what resources you have to handle a worst-case scenario, such as job loss or illness, Lima said. While it will become increasingly expensive to take out a mortgage as rates rise, buyers will face less competition for each property. And when it comes to deciding whether to put in an offer, "they may have a couple of days to think about it instead of hours," Fratantoni said. Improve your odds of staying employed: You may not be that highly sought after cybersecurity specialist that every Fortune 500 company wants. That means home sellers will no longer be able to price their properties 15% higher than what their neighbor's house just sold for. for the second quarter in a row. Companies have been reticent to let go of anybody," said Andrew Challenger, senior vice president of global outplacement firm Challenger Gray & Christmas. The White House and other government leaders are saying the economy remains healthy. That's created a lot of mixed signals.

President Joe Biden held two events Thursday where he made the case that the economy is not in a recession, despite two consecutive quarters of negative ...

"But if you look at our job market, consumer spending, business investment, we see signs of economic progress in the second quarter, as well." Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen held a rare, stand-alone news conference at the Treasury in between the president's two events. In the past few months, consumer and business confidence levels have plunged. "That is not what we are seeing right now," she said. The leaders of Corning, Marriott International, Bank of America, TIAA and Deloitte were all present, with Marriott's Tony Capuano and Corning's Wendell Weeks attending in person. The official arbiter of recessions, the National Bureau of Economic Research, likely won't rule for months. He then listed several companies planning to build factories in the U.S. before concluding, "that doesn't sound like a recession to me." Coming on the heels of a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter, the two straight declines meet the most commonly used definition of a recession. On Thursday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, fell 0.9% in the second quarter. - Coming on the heels of a 1.6% contraction in the first quarter, the two straight declines meet the most commonly used definition of a recession. "Let me just give you what the facts are in terms of the state of the economy," Biden said in a speech that was billed as remarks on the latest budget bill in Congress. "Number one, we have a record job market, and record unemployment of 3.6%, and businesses are investing in America at record rates." - On Thursday, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic activity, fell 0.9% in the second quarter.

Gross domestic product, in an initial reading, fell 0.2 percent in the second quarter. President Biden said any troubles would be transitory.

“Every annual plan I’ve done in the past three years has not happened that way,” she said. Avital Ungar is trying to interpret the conflicting signals in real time. Ms. Ungar said demand remained hard to predict as prices rise and the economy slows. That could be a sign of consumers’ resilience in the face of soaring airfares and rental car rates. Indeed, economists argue that a pullback in spending on goods is needed to relieve pressure on overstretched supply chains. Or it could merely reflect a temporary willingness to put up with high prices, which will fade along with the summer sun. Underlying measures of demand remained solid, and many economists thought it was likely that the first-quarter data would eventually be revised to show a modest gain. He has thought about finding a conventional 9-to-5 job to pay the bills, but he would then need to pay for child care for his 4-year-old twins. News of the back-to-back contractions heightened a debate in Washington over whether a recession had begun and, if so, whether President Biden was to blame. Consumer spending, the bedrock of the economy, grew, although at its slowest pace since the first months of the pandemic. “But even as we face historic global challenges, we are on the right path, and we will come through this transition stronger and more secure.” The estimates for both periods will be revised in coming months as government statisticians get more complete data.

Most economists think the country is not in the throes of a major downturn, but the outlook is far from rosy.

Economic uncertainty isn't going away anytime soon. Here are steps you can take now to be ready for whatever is ahead.

She said that between January and June, her group distributed over $150,000 in emergency cash assistance to survivors who were having a harder time keeping the lights on and putting food on the table. If you are experiencing food or housing insecurity, look for non-profit or community organizations around you. “It’s a hectic existence,” Galeon said. Check out federal programs such as the Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program, which helps cover bills, and Lifeline, which can assist with phone bills. Most health insurance covers some type of mental health assistance. If you think a recession could destabilize yours, here are some things you can do to prepare. Her organization provides housing, food, and cash emergency assistance for people in the community. If a provider is competitive with other companies, there’s an even better chance of getting a discount, she added, Her advice is to keep an eye on the monthly fees or service charges that might eat into your savings. But there are steps you can take now to be ready for whatever is ahead. The Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level since 2018. But, she notes, some people’s immune systems are better able to recover than others.

Les turbulences boursières et économiques pourraient faire émerger des cibles d'acquisition à un prix attrayant pour le spécialiste du camionnage TFI ...

Les revenus, pour leur part, augmentent de 32 % pour s’établir à 2,42 milliards US. L’entreprise demandera à la Bourse de Toronto de faire passer le maximum admissible de 7 millions à 8,8 millions. Jeudi, le gouvernement américain a dévoilé que le produit intérieur brut (PIB) des États-Unis avait décliné au deuxième trimestre, la deuxième baisse consécutive. Les cibles que nous avons sont toujours intéressantes. Voyons ce que 2022 sera et nous serons prêts pour une acquisition de taille. Depuis avril, la plupart des entreprises de camionnage ont perdu de 10 % à 20 % [en Bourse] parce qu’il y a une perception qu’on s’en va en récession. » « Nous croyons que notre action est toujours abordable, a dit le dirigeant.

The official arbiters of US recessions aren't close to making a call that a downturn is under way, and may end up concluding 2022's first half was part of a ...

The committee declares a turning point with a lag of 11 months on average.” “A recession is a sustained and broad-based decline in economic activity, across many sectors of the economy. It’s “very unlikely” a recession started in the first quarter and the data is more mixed on the second quarter, he said. The NBER does include GDP as a factor in its deliberations, but averages it with the less-followed metric of gross domestic income. He declines to comment as a matter of policy on the current economy. The National Bureau of Economic Research’s business cycle dating committee rejects the notion that two quarterly contractions in gross domestic product is conclusive of a recession.

How are people coping at a time when the economy is struggling? The U.S. economy contracted for the second-straight quarter, which traditionally signals a ...

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GDP scare headlines are misleading, and other more telling measures reveal a Biden economy that's still growing. by Robert Shapiro July 29, 2022 July 29, ...

That growth even outpaced the best periods of recent expansions: Employment rose 1.4 percent in the first two quarters of 1997, 1 percent in the first two quarters of 2005, 1.1 percent in the first two quarters of 2014, and 1 percent in the first two quarters of 2018. Finally, this year’s accelerating inflation contributed to the drop in real GDP by offsetting a growing share of production. This week’s BEA report also shows that real fixed business investment fell at a 0.1 percent rate in the second quarter. Even as the economy’s fundamentals generally remain sound, there is a danger that the Fed’s interest rate hikes may prove too large, dampening demand and employment too much. If employment, consumption, and business investment don’t point to recession, why did real GDP growth go south in the past two quarters? For example, real consumer spending grew 1.8 percent and 1 percent in the first and second quarters. That’s slower than in 2021 but nothing like the first two quarters of the 1990–91 and 2007–09 recessions, when real consumer spending contracted. And measured against the second quarter of 2021, real fixed business investment grew by 3.5 percent. Similarly, over the first two quarters of the recessions of 2001 and 2007–09, employment fell respectively by 761,000 and 426,000 positions, or 0.6 percent and 0.3 percent. Over the first six months of the 1990–91 recession, employment fell by 690,000, or 0.6 percent. That sounds dispiriting, but behind the headline numbers, the basic growth elements provide a more encouraging gauge of the economy’s path and prospects. Those criteria point to continuing growth in the United States.