Oil price

2022 - 7 - 5

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WTI Drops Below $100 As Recession Fears Grow (OilPrice.com)

Despite serious supply problems in the market, oil prices crashed on Tuesday morning due to renewed recession fears and the prospect of demand destruction.

Yet all of this is not enough to break the cycle of fear. A look at today’s stock market is enough to understand the main concern for oil markets right now, recession. Russia Finds Light Oil in Offshore Arctic. Russia’s largest oil producer Rosneft (MCX:ROSN) has announced a more than 600 million barrel discovery of light sweet crude in the Pechora Sea in the Arctic, claiming that it has the competence to go it alone. JP Morgan Warns of $380 Oil After Price Cap. Analysts from US investment bank JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) warned that in case a price cap is introduced on Russian crude, the subsequent (deliberate) cutting of oil production could send oil prices more than tripling to $380 per barrel. Whilst most assessments expected recession to kick in later this year, its first signs are already emerging with European economies potentially entering a recession in Q3. Seeing Brent futures losing a hefty 10% today and dropping close to $102 per barrel, one would perhaps fail to notice that supply remains very much an issue – Libya’s almost complete degradation into an all-out internecine conflict and Norway’s offshore production seeing the first massive strike campaign of recent years have narrowed potential supply sources even further. Uneven Outlook Scares Oil Permabulls. Amidst a deteriorating economic outlook, the past week has seen another decrease in long positions held in petroleum contracts by investors, though the sale of 9 million barrels last week is much milder than the hefty 71 million barrels in the week to 21 June.

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Image courtesy of "Fortune"

$65 or $380? Analysts have wildly different outlooks for oil prices in ... (Fortune)

Analysts have wildly different outlooks for oil. Here's what they expect.

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Oil Falls Below $100 Per Barrel For First Time Since May As 'Strong ... (Forbes)

The price of U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate slid roughly 8% to trade at around $99 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude now sits at ...

The Euro fell to a new 20-year low against the dollar on Tuesday. The currency has taken a hit as soaring gas prices from Russia’s war in Ukraine send recession fears surging higher, with central banks scrambling to raise interest rates. Amid Western sanctions on Russian oil and gas, Euro zone inflation has skyrocketed—reaching a record 8.6% in June. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, has remained strong even as the Federal Reserve similarly hikes interest rates in a bid to cool surging consumer prices. The “tightness” in global energy markets is being countered by the “strong likelihood of recession,” which along with the surge in prices earlier this year has begun to “curtail oil demand,” according to a recent note from Ritterbusch and Associates.

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Oil Prices Drop Below $100. How They Could Fall Even Further. (Barron's)

Text size. Crude prices spiked this year after Russia invaded Ukraine but may fall sharply in an economic slowdown. Getty Images.

the U.S. benchmark, dropped 8.2% to $99.50, their first close below $100 since May 10. Oil prices tumbled below $100 a barrel as recession fears hit the market. Oil Falls Below $100. Prices Could Drop Even Further.

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Oil tumbles 9% on recession demand destruction fears (Reuters)

Oil futures sank along with natural gas, gasoline and equities, which often serve as demand indicator for crude. Meanwhile, mass COVID-19 testing in China ...

read more read more read more read more read more There was no WTI settlement on Monday because of a U.S. holiday.

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Oil prices could plunge to $65 by year-end if recession hits, Citi says (Markets Insider)

Citi sees oil prices at $85 a barrel by the end of 2022 even if an "increasingly likely" recession is avoided, as Russia keeps pumping but demand slows.

Yet Citi also said European sanctions on Russia, such as the EU's plan to sharply reduce imports from the country, could increase prices. They called a global recession "increasingly likely." Many analysts expect exports to fall due to sanctions on Moscow.

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Oil tumbles as much as 10%, breaks below $100 as recession fears ... (CNBC)

Oil prices tumbled Tuesday with the U.S. benchmark falling below $100 as recession fears grow, sparking fears that an economic slowdown will cut demand for ...

Goldman has a $140 target on Brent. "We're at critically low inventories across the space," he said. "Recessions don't have a great track record of killing demand. The national average has since pulled back amid oil's decline, and sat at $4.80 on Tuesday. At one point WTI slid more than 10%, trading as low as $97.43 per barrel. "[T]he oil market appears to be homing in on some recent weakening in apparent demand for gasoline and diesel," the firm wrote in a note to clients.

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The World's Third-Largest Economy Is Facing A Looming Energy ... (OilPrice.com)

It could be because of its heavy energy import bill that Japan proposed to the G7 to cap Russian oil export prices at half the current rate. By Charles Kennedy ...

That is one of the reasons why Japan is so reluctant to stop the LNG imports from Russia." Japan already had a significant energy import bill as it depends on foreign oil and gas for 90 percent of its needs. "We cannot use many nuclear power stations therefore the supply and demand balance of the power industry is quite tight," Takeshi Hashimoto told the Financial Times earlier this month.

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International oil price falls as recession fears boost fuel demand ... (Livemint)

Oil prices dropped as concerns over a possible recession affecting fuel demand eclipsed supply disruption fears.The latest hike in gas and fuel prices have ...

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 15 cents, or 0.1%, to $108.28 a barrel, from Friday's close. The strike is expected to reduce oil and gas output by 89,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), of which gas output makes up 27,500 boepd, Norwegian producer Equinor has said. In South Korea, inflation in June hit a near 24-year high, adding to concerns of slowing economic growth and oil demand. "Oil is still struggling to break out from its current recessionary malaise as the market pivots away from inflation to economic despair," Stephen Innes of SPI Asset Management said in a note. Oil prices slipped on Tuesday, reversing earlier gains, as concerns of a possible global recession curtailing fuel demand outweighed supply disruption fears, highlighted by an expected production cut in Norway. The latest hike in gas and fuel prices have also added to worries about a recession

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Why Oil Prices Crashed By 10% Today (OilPrice.com)

But while Saudi Arabia lifted the August price for its flagship crude grade to Asia, Arab Light, by $2.80 per barrel, the price of Brent and WTI crude fell ...

But while Saudi Arabia lifted the August price for its flagship crude grade to Asia, Arab Light, by $2.80 per barrel, the price of Brent and WTI crude fell sharply. Also on Tuesday , a Citi report suggested that oil prices could fall to as low as $65 per barrel by the end of this year and as low as $45 by the end of next year if the world enters a recession and demand tanks. The price of WTI crude oil slipped $9.01 per barrel by 12:37 pm ET below $100 per barrel to $99.42 (-8.31%), while Brent crude sank $10.41 per barrel to $103.10 (-9.17%). Saudi Arabia sets the pricing trend for most of the Middle Eastern oil exporters and is typically seen as a bellwether for the state of the oil market. The plummeting price action comes as Saudi Arabia announced a price hike for all its crude grades in August to its prized market, Asia. Saudi Arabia’s price hike comes mostly as expected by the market on strong refining margins and expectations of strong demand. Crude oil prices fell by nearly 7% on Tuesday as fears of a recession mount—a scenario that could put a dent in oil demand.

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Oil Steadies Near $100 After Plunging on Recession Concerns (Bloomberg)

Oil steadied near $100 a barrel as banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said a plunge driven by fears a recession will hurt demand was overdone, ...

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Oil prices fall sharply as recession worries grow (The Washington Post)

The plunge suggests that gasoline prices could be poised for a sharp descent, though there could be a multiweek lag.

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Oil drops below $100 a barrel for first time since early May - CNN (CNN)

For the first time in nearly two months, crude oil prices have fallen below $100 a barrel, reflecting investors' growing concerns about a US recession that ...

There could be more price drops at the pump in the near term -- a decline of another 10 cents a gallon in the next week or so wouldn't be a surprise, Kloza said. So far, drivers have seen relatively little relief at the gas pump from the recent fall in oil and gasoline futures. But the supply of oil is only part of the equation traders consider when bidding on oil futures. When people get laid off, there are fewer people driving to work or to the store or other destinations. That has raised expectations that the central bank's aggressive moves to cool the economy could cause job losses and a recession There have been mounting fears of a recession in recent weeks, which has helped take oil prices sharply lower.

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Oil Prices Pulled Lower by Dimming Demand (The Wall Street Journal)

Slowing demand and recession fears helped bring the benchmark U.S. oil price below $100 a barrel Tuesday, continuing a rapid turnaround from soaring levels ...

Oil prices shot higher earlier this year as war in Ukraine disrupted supply lines and the world-wide postpandemic reopening lifted demand. The growth outlook is darkening as central banks work to get inflation under control by cooling economic activity, pulling down traders’ forecasts for oil demand. Slowing demand and recession fears helped bring the benchmark U.S. oil price below $100 a barrel Tuesday, continuing a rapid turnaround from soaring levels in recent months.

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Are U.S. Gasoline Refiners Running Out Of Steam (OilPrice.com)

U.S. gasoline refineries have been operating at near-maximum utilization levels as demand continues to climb.

For the 2022 hurricane season, NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms, of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes, including 3 to 6 major hurricanes. In its June Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), the administration forecast that U.S. refinery utilization would be relatively high this summer in response to strong wholesale prices for petroleum products. The EIA expects America’s refinery utilization to reach a monthly average level of 96% twice this summer, “near the upper limits of what refiners can consistently maintain.” In the week of June 24, the average U.S. refinery utilization rate stood at 95%, with the East Coast and Gulf Coast rates at 98%, per EIA’s latest weekly report. It should also be noted that operable capacity across America’s refineries is now 17.944 million bpd, down by 1 million bpd compared to 18.976 million bpd two years ago. As these trends continue, drivers will likely continue to see relief at the pump,” AAA said last week, just before the July 4 holiday weekend. If one or more of those expected major hurricanes make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast, where a lot of refining capacity is located, some refiners could be forced to preventively shut down or could be at risk of flooding, which would additionally tighten the fuel market in the United States. Analysts are of the same opinion, too. The trend of high gasoline production is set to continue in the near future as refiners run at full tilt to take advantage of the high refining margins. Refiners are running crude processing at full tilt. Refinery utilization at 95% is at its highest since before COVID—September 2019. “Gas demand currently sits at 8.93 million b/d, which is lower than last year’s rate of 9.11 million b/d at the end of June. On the other hand, total domestic gasoline stocks increased by 2.6 million bbl to 221.6 million bbl.

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Oil prices bounce back from Tuesday tumble as supply concerns ... (Reuters)

Brent crude futures rose by $1.62, or 1.58%, to $104.39 a barrel at 0839 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed $1.04, or 1.05%, to $100.54 a ...

read more Brent's six-month market structure was in steep backwardation of $15.12 a barrel, up by just 70 cents from the previous day. read more read more read more

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Where are crude oil prices headed? Investors confused as analyst ... (Economic Times)

For oil, the historical evidence suggests that oil demand goes negative only in the worst global recessions. But oil prices fall in all recessions to ...

If that’s the case, oil demand may be weakened from the downturn, but it should still see annual growth. But oil prices fall in all recessions to roughly the marginal cost,” Citi analysts said in a note. "Unless the war in Ukraine spills over to the rest of Europe, the next recession looks more likely to resemble that of 1990-1991 than of 2007-2008. West Texas Intermediate crude, the US oil benchmark, slid 8.4 per cent, or $9.14, to trade at $99.29 per barrel. In the meantime, Russia's former president Dmitry Medvedev said on Tuesday that a reported proposal from Japan to cap the price of Russian oil at around half its current price would lead to significantly less oil on the market and could push prices above $300-400 a barrel. The contract last traded under $100 on May 11.

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Oil prices bounce back from Tuesday tumble as supply concerns ... (CNBC)

Brent crude futures rose as much as $3.08, or 2.9%, to $105.85 a barrel in early trade after plunging 9.5% on Tuesday, the biggest daily drop since March. It ...

Worries about a recession, however, have continued to weigh on markets. More G10 central banks raised interest rates in June than in any month for at least two decades, Reuters calculations showed. Brent crude futures rose as much as $3.08, or 2.9%, to $105.85 a barrel in early trade after plunging 9.5% on Tuesday, the biggest daily drop since March. It was last up 92 cents, or 0.9%, at $103.69 a barrel at 0243 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to a session high of $102.14 a barrel, up $2.64, or 2.7%, after closing below $100 for the first time since late April. It was last up 46 cents, or 0.5%, at $99.96 a barrel. Oil prices rose as much as nearly 3% on Wednesday before paring some gains as investors piled back into the market after a heavy rout in the previous session, with supply concerns returning to the fore even as worries about a global recession linger. - Brent crude futures rose as much as $3.08, or 2.9%, to $105.85 a barrel in early trade after plunging 9.5% on Tuesday, the biggest daily drop since March. It was last up 92 cents, or 0.9%, at $103.69 a barrel at 0243 GMT. - U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude climbed to a session high of $102.14 a barrel, up $2.64, or 2.7%, after closing below $100 for the first time since late April. It was last up 46 cents, or 0.5%, at $99.96 a barrel. - Oil prices rose as much as nearly 3% on Wednesday before paring some gains as investors piled back into the market after a heavy rout in the previous session, with supply concerns returning to the fore even as worries about a global recession linger.

Crude oil price forecasts under pressure as recession fears mount (S&P Global)

With crude prices under pressure from growing fears of a global recession while supply side threats hang over the market, the near term price forecasts for ...

06/06/2022 06/06/2022 The bank only gave the recession scenario a 10% chance of occurring, however. In May, the producer group fell short of its production targets by about 2.7 million b/d, according to its own assessments. For 2023, the Brent forecast gap widens further. The rout was the third-largest absolute price drop since Brent futures trading started in 1988.

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Are Falling Oil Prices a Threat to Oil & Gas Companies? (TipRanks)

After witnessing almost decades of high prices in March 2022, oil prices witnessed a 10% plunge on Tuesday, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading ...

According to a Citigroup report, should a recession befall, Brent prices could hit a low of $65 per barrel by the end of 2022 and could also hit $45 per barrel by the end of 2023. Notably, analysts are bullish on the long-term trajectory of both ExxonMobil and Diamondback, making them lucrative investment options. Similarly, JP Morgan has also projected that oil prices could skyrocket to $380 per barrel should Russia start cutting crude oil production in response to the extreme sanctions on the invading country. Meanwhile, the stock has lost 36.3% so far this year. Oil company stocks also dipped yesterday with the falling oil prices. Moreover, changes in industry margins could add another $4.6 billion to its profits. After witnessing almost decades of high prices in March 2022, oil prices witnessed a 10% plunge on Tuesday, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) trading near $97.43 per barrel. It is typical for oil prices to recede in times of a steep economic downturn. Similarly, Credit Suisse analyst Manav Gupta reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $125, implying 47.4% upside potential to current levels. Following the disclosures, Wells Fargo analyst Roger Read reiterated a Buy rating on the stock with a price target of $109, which implies 28.5% upside potential to current levels. However, the report also suggests that they do not expect the U.S. to enter a recession anytime soon. The firm sees the current dip in oil prices as a buying opportunity.

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U.S. Funds Set Sights On Venezuela Oil Investment (OilPrice.com)

Gramercy Funds Management and Amos Global Energy are looking to take a stake in an oil project off the eastern coast of Venezuela.

The move may be a signal that the initial signs of thawing in Washington's relations with Caracas are now multiplying. The two partners in the joint venture said that the aim of the venture was to "contribute to balancing oil supply and demand," according to a statement by Ali Moshiri, the head of Amos Global Energy. According to Gramercy partner Matt Maloney, the venture "will be beneficial to U.S. interests in the region and the U.S. economy by lowering fuel prices for American consumers."

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