CPI

2022 - 5 - 11

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Image courtesy of "The New York Times"

Live Updates: April CPI Report and Inflation News (The New York Times)

Inflation data shows a modest deceleration, but prices are still climbing at a brisk pace, suggesting that underlying inflation pressures remain strong.

This study suggests, however, that high-frequency spending categories like food tend to motivate consumer psychology more than changes in the cost of rent, for example, which most people encounter only once a year. Policymakers have been struggling to avoid a “wage-price spiral,” in which price and wage increases become self-reinforcing and escalate out of control. “What stands out in April 2022 is the above-average increases in food prices,” the office said in a statement. Consumer prices in Germany, Europe’s largest economy, rose at an annual rate of 7.8 percent in April, the Federal Statistics Office said Wednesday, citing preliminary figures that are adjusted to make them comparable with inflation data from other E.U. countries. Agricultural prices started to skyrocket in the second half of last year, meaning year-over-year price increases will start to look less steep since they are measured from a higher starting point. The interest rate resets every six months and is linked to the rate of inflation. But in the process, the Fed has disrupted financial markets and contributed to big price reductions for stocks and bonds. White House officials in recent weeks have repeatedly referred to “ Putin’s price hike,” a reference to the role that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has played in driving up oil and gas prices. On Tuesday, Mr. Biden said in a speech at the White House that inflation was his “top domestic priority” and that his administration was taking whatever steps it could to try to reduce costs. But 67 percent of respondents in the survey — including 42 percent of Republicans — said they approved of the law, the same level of support as when it passed last year. The pickup in housing costs is an especially big deal, because they make up about a third of the overall inflation index. The reality that annual inflation has possibly peaked will give the White House and Fed a positive talking point and a dose of comfort.

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Image courtesy of "CNBC"

Inflation barreled ahead at 8.3% in April from a year ago, remaining ... (CNBC)

Inflation as gauged by the consumer price index was expected to rise 8% year-over-year in April, according to Dow Jones estimates.

Airline fares continued their climb as more people take to the skies amid increased business travel and vacations. Auto sales also have been a big contributor to inflation as supply chain issues, especially with the semiconductors vital to vehicle operating systems, have pushed prices up. Stock market futures reacted negatively to the report, turning negative after being positive earlier in the morning. Real wages adjusted for inflation decreased 0.1% on the month despite a nominal increase of 0.3% in average hourly earnings. On a 12-month basis, energy costs were still up 30.3% while food rose 9.4%, according to unadjusted data. However, Wednesday's data shows that the Fed has a big job ahead. That represented a slight ease from March's peak but was still close to the highest level since the summer of 1982. Rising prices at the pump and in grocery stores have been one problem, but inflation has spread beyond those two areas into housing, auto sales and a host of other areas. Over the past year, real earnings have dropped 2.6% even though average hourly earnings are up 5.5%. The CPI gains came even though energy prices declined 2.7% for the month, including a 6.1% drop for gasoline. Used vehicle prices fell 0.4% on the month but new vehicle prices rose 1.1%. Prices rose 22.7% and 13.2% for the two categories respectively over the past year. The month-over-month gains also were higher than expectations — 0.3% on headline CPI vs.

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Image courtesy of "Yahoo Finance"

Inflation decelerates slightly from 40-year high as CPI rises 8.3% in ... (Yahoo Finance)

CONSUMER PRICES RISE BY THE MOST SINCE 1981. U.S. CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, YEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE SINCE 1970.

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Image courtesy of "MarketWatch"

U.S. inflation rate slows to 8.3%, CPI shows, but price pressures still ... (MarketWatch)

The yearly rate of U.S. inflation fell to 8.3% in April to mark the first decline in eight months, but the upward pressure on prices is unlikely to ease...

The cost of clothing fell for the first time in seven months and used-vehicle prices also declined. Looking ahead: “The slowdown in CPI was largely due to March’s decline in gasoline prices after April’s surge. The rate of inflation over the past year slowed to 8.3% from 8.5% — the first time it’s declined since last summer. Shelter costs account for a third or more of a typical household budget. And lockdowns in China could further disrupt the shipment of critical supplies that American companies need to produce their goods and services. Consumers got a temporary break from higher gas prices in April. They fell 6.1% last month. Oil prices surged after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and then leveled off in April. Food prices jumped almost 1% last month. Prices are climbing again. The cost of rent and housing both rose sharply again in April and helped explain the big increase in the core rate of inflation. It’s already raised rates twice this year. The increase in the core rate over the past year slowed to 6.2% from from a 40-year high of 6.5% in March.

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Image courtesy of "USA TODAY"

Soaring inflation slowed in April. Will it bring a bit of relief to price ... (USA TODAY)

The consumer price index increased 8.3% annually, down from 8.5% in March, as a drop in gasoline prices offset a continuing run-up in food, rent and other costs ...

Breakfast cereal prices rose 2.4% in April and are up 12.1% from a year ago, and bread costs increased 2% and 9.1% yearly. Consumers’ pivot to more spending on services, along with worker shortages that propelled wages higher, drive up a different set of prices. Rent climbed 0.6% monthly and 4.8% from a year ago. Grocery costs jumped 1% monthly and 10.8% from a year ago. Much of the slowdown in the yearly measure reflected a 6.1% monthly drop in gas prices. Fish was up 0.9% and 13% annually. But the monthly rise in core prices "indicates that underlying inflation pressures are stronger than we had expected." Pork chop prices rose 1.9% monthly and 14% annually. That has begun moderating increases in the price of furniture, appliances and other items. Clothing prices fell 0.8% monthly, lowering the annual rise to 5.4%. But the 3,300-mile trip will cost an extra $550 or so in gas, so they decided to skip it this year. Regular unleaded hit a record $4.37 a gallon Tuesday, up from $4.12 a month ago, according to AAA.

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Image courtesy of "Bloomberg"

Bitcoin Tumbles to 11-Month Low While TerraUSD Extends Declines (Bloomberg)

Bitcoin fell below $30000 and touched its lowest level since June, while the TerraUSD stablecoin continued its downward spiral.

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Image courtesy of "The Globe and Mail"

U.S. consumer prices slow in April, but inflation likely to remain high ... (The Globe and Mail)

The U.S. consumer price index rose 0.3% last month, the smallest gain since last August, as gasoline prices eased off record highs.

That was the largest gain since June 2006 and followed a 0.4 per cent rise in March. The CPI shot up 8.5 per cent in March, the largest year-on-year gain since December 1981. Underlying inflation pressures were also fanned by airline fares, which soared a record 18.6 per cent and new motor vehicle prices accelerating 1.1 per cent. Get the latest investing insights delivered right to your inbox three times a week, with the Globe Investor newsletter. The drop in gasoline blunted a 0.9 per cent increase in food prices. There was some respite from high inflation, with apparel prices falling 0.8 per cent. Gasoline prices are rising again and were about $4.161 per gallon early this week after dipping below $4 in April, according to the Energy Information Administration. The U.S. central bank started raising rates in March. China’s zero tolerance COVID-19 policy is seen putting more strain on global supply chains, driving up goods prices. The war has also driven up global goods prices. Rents rose by the most since 2006. U.S. stocks were higher.

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Image courtesy of "Fortune"

Investors are betting that today's inflation report will show the worst ... (Fortune)

As such, all eyes on Wall Street will be tuning into today's pivotal consumer price index (CPI) report to see if there's any relief in sight. The numbers, ...

Any whiff of a 75-basis-point hike would likely send bearish investors rushing for the exits, the markets pros fear, after a week to forget. “Today’s report will help shape the early read into this, and has an ability to move markets in a large manner if diverging from consensus too far.” According to a Reuters survey of economists, the consensus estimate will show consumer prices rose 0.2% last month, which would mean inflation is running at a red-hot rate of 8.1% higher than a year ago. However, she added, “I think the pace we’re going right now seems about right to me.” Last month, the CPI print showed inflation for consumer products hit a 41-year-high, growing at an annual rate of 8.5%. Which brings us back to today’s CPI data.

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Image courtesy of "CNN"

April CPI report: US inflation slowed last month for the first time since ... (CNN)

The Consumer Price Index was up 8.3% in the 12 months ended in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday, slightly higher than economists had ...

"Inflation remains widespread, making it all the more difficult to curtail," wrote Wells Fargo economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese in a note to clients. Food prices rose 0.9% last month and 9.4% year over year, the biggest jump since April 1981. That means it's uncertain how much the pace of inflation can slow down until these things are resolved. But there are still a lot of factors that will keep prices elevated over the summer. Businesses have been building up their inventories, which helps core inflation on the goods side, while prices in the services sector are soaring as Americans return to traveling and other leisure activities. Year-over-year, housing costs are up 5.1%.

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Image courtesy of "City Index"

How will the market react to CPI (City Index)

There's a lot been said about the US potentially hitting “peak inflation,” but it not all about today's CPI print...

No opinion given in this material constitutes a recommendation by City Index or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. This material is short term in nature and may only relate to facts and circumstances existing at a specific time or day. This material has been prepared using the thoughts and opinions of the author and these may change. All told, I don’t expect to see a major reversal in the trends today. It formed a small doji candle there, as dip buyers attempted to defend the psychologically-important 1.05 handle but lacked conviction to cause a reversal in the bear trend. If they manage to push rates back above the March 2020 low, this would be a welcome sign for them, although they will then face further resistance around 1.0755 to 1.0805 range, an area which was previously support. A weaker CPI print may lead to some strength in downbeat tech stocks and gold, and weigh on the dollar. Only a decisive break above 1.0805 would be deemed a bullish technical breakthrough, for that will completely undo the most recent breakdown. - Third, let’s not forget that there is a risk that instead of weakening price pressures, CPI will come in hotter. Above, I wrote ‘slightly’ bullish on the dollar because much of the Fed’s future tightening is already priced in. If anything, we may see inflation remaining elevated for a long period of time instead. Well, it obviously depends on the data, doesn’t it?

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Image courtesy of "advisorperspectives.com"

Consumer Price Index: April Headline at 8.26%, Down from March (advisorperspectives.com)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released the April Consumer Price Index data this morning. The year-over-year non-seasonally adjusted Headline CPI came in at ...

The energy index rose 30.3 percent over the last year, and the food index increased 9.4 percent, the largest 12-month increase since the period ending April 1981. The all items less food and energy index rose 6.2 percent over the last 12 months. The all items index increased 8.3 percent for the 12 months ending April, a smaller increase than the 8.5-percent figure for the period ending in March. The food index rose 0.9 percent over the month as the food at home index rose 1.0 percent. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 8.3 percent before seasonal adjustment. Increases in the indexes for shelter, food, airline fares, and new vehicles were the largest contributors to the seasonally adjusted all items increase.

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Image courtesy of "FOREX.com"

How will the market react to CPI? (FOREX.com)

There's a lot been said about the US potentially hitting “peak inflation,” but it not all about today's CPI print...

Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained herein is intended as general information about the subject matter covered and is provided with the understanding that we do not provide any investment, legal, or tax advice. The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. Futures, Options on Futures, Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Spot Gold and Silver contracts are not subject to regulation under the U.S. Commodity Exchange Act. Contracts for Difference (CFDs) are not available for US residents. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. All told, I don’t expect to see a major reversal in the trends today. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. A weaker CPI print may lead to some strength in downbeat tech stocks and gold, and weigh on the dollar. It formed a small doji candle there, as dip buyers attempted to defend the psychologically-important 1.05 handle but lacked conviction to cause a reversal in the bear trend. If they manage to push rates back above the March 2020 low, this would be a welcome sign for them, although they will then face further resistance around 1.0755 to 1.0805 range, an area which was previously support. - Third, let’s not forget that there is a risk that instead of weakening price pressures, CPI will come in hotter. Above, I wrote ‘slightly’ bullish on the dollar because much of the Fed’s future tightening is already priced in.

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Image courtesy of "ABC Action News"

In-Depth: What is the CPI and Why Does It Matter? (ABC Action News)

Wednesday's news of the Consumer Price Index rising again in April quantified what everyone has seen for months, almost everything we buy is going up in ...

April marked the 17th consecutive monthly increase in the food index and the food at home index's 10.8 price jump is the largest year-over-year increase since November 1980. If you've been to Publix, Winn-Dixie, or your grocery store of choice, the following won't come as a surprise, but prices for food overall have risen 9.4% year-over-year as of April. But the breakdown of food prices also showed a divide between the price of food for home vs. The U.S. Federal Reserve, which has the responsibility of controlling inflation, recently increased interest rates by 0.5 basis points and is likely to do so again at the next meeting. In April, overall prices in the energy sector did drop in some areas. What is the CPI? According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services, also referred to as inflation. For food at home, the BLS reported prices have risen 10.8% in the last year with each of the last four months showing a growth of at least 1%. At the same time, prices for food away from home have risen 7.2% in the last year, with no month dating back to October 2021 showing an increase of at least 1%. Core CPI approached levels last seen in January last month which can be seen in the following chart. Overall, gas prices have risen 43.6% in the last year with other motor fuels jumping 64.2% year-over-year in April. However, combined with the previous two months, gas prices are still significantly above where they were in January. Any slight gains for customers with prices may be wiped out in April as gasoline prices have started rising as the busy Memorial Day holiday travel season nears. Overall, the CPI for April increased 0.3%t on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 1.2% in March. Over the last year, inflation for all items stood at 8.3%, non-seasonally adjusted. The CPI is available for major groups of consumer expenditures including: food and beverages, housing, apparel, transportation, medical care, recreation, education and communication, and other goods and services. The year-over-year number (8.3%) is what is most focused on by investors, politicians, and journalists.

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