Maple Leafs vs Lightning

It's time for the annual nice, relaxing Florida road trip in the spring.

Vasilevskiy, not surprisingly, has not maintained a third year of Vezina level play non-stop, but he’s been better than every single Leafs goalie, and most of the rest of the league too. What the Lightning do have is a little bit more raw shooting talent than the Leafs. Stamkos v Matthews is basically a wash in terms of their ability to get goals above expected. But their best player has to still be their best player for them to be the team that rolled to the cup last year. They have a lot of players injured, they need to practice with the new players, and it’s impossible to just dial back and relax too much. I saw a headline today that the Leafs “must” be better defensively in these games, and you know, they really don’t have to be. The final month of the season is jam-packed with one game for every two days left, and the Leafs are going to finish tired.

The surging Toronto Maple Leafs, who are riding a four-game winning streak, travel to Tampa Bay to battle the Lightning on Monday night.

Lightning over 3.5 goals (-105): The Lightning haven’t had any scoring issues of late as they’ve combined for 17 goals in their last four games. The 32-year-old is averaging nearly four shots per game (3.83) over his last six contests. The Maple Leafs have been on an offensive tear, scoring five goals or more in each of their last four outings. The worry whenever betting the over in a Bolts game is that netminder Andrei Vasilevskiy will completely stymie his opponent. It helps that both teams’ top goalscorers are playing some of their best hockey at the moment. Pregame narrative: The importance of this game can’t be understated.

NHL odds, picks and predictions for Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning on April 4. NHL betting free picks for moneyline and Over/Under.

The third line of Abruzzese-Kampf-Engvall doesn’t push the needle for us either in regards to the Over. Cooper will be able to match up against the Auston Matthews line with the last change and the Marner-Matthews-Bunting line could see either a lot of Brayden Point, Victor Hedman, or both. He leads the league in goals by one and has 26 tallies over his last 30 games. Their average home games see a total of 5.63 total goals which is the fourth-lowest mark in hockey. This game could possibly be a first-round matchup and we are liking this to be a close and tight battle. The Leafs have been scoring a ton of goals of late, but the first period versus Philadelphia resulted in zero goals. The Leafs have surprised many with their play against top-flight teams and if Keefe has them focused on tonight’s game with Campbell in net, they have a much better chance at grabbing two points tonight than with rookie goalie Erik Kallgren tomorrow in Florida. The two injuries are a wash for us in regards to pricing. The poor play seemed to be more of a mental issue with the American goalie and the time off likely helped. The Toronto Maple Leafs are 7-1 in their last seven games as underdogs or slim favorites. Looking at the home side, the Bolts are 9-8 SU since the beginning of March, ranking 17th in point percentage over that stretch. The Toronto Maple Leafs are 7-1 in their last seven games as underdogs or slim favorites.

There is a clear headliner on Monday night's four-game NHL card: Toronto at Tampa Bay. And if the oddsmakers are to be believed, we should be in for a doozy ...

If the Leafs continue their stingy ways, Campbell’s inconsistencies shouldn’t be a huge deal. The goaltending matchup on Monday night is projected to be Andrei Vasilevskiy against Jack Campbell. Vasilevskiy has done his thing one again this season, posting a .919 saver percentage and a +26.1 Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) in 53 appearances. That should be easier said than done on Monday night, however, as these two defenses can be counted among the best in the circuit at preventing high-danger scoring chances. After a dominant first two months of the season, the 30-year-old capitulated through the middle part of the season before going on the injured list with a rib issue. These are two gifted offensive teams that can ruin an under-ticket in the blink of an eye. Both teams also rank inside the top-10 in expected goals created at 5-on-5.