Jason Robertson

Given his outstanding production in his first two NHL seasons, especially in the goals category, Robertson is due for a huge pay day coming off his entry-level ...

Rantanen scored 87 points in just 74 games in 2018-19, a points-per-game rate of 1.18. Toronto right winger Mitch Marner also signed a six-year deal in 2019 following a campaign in which he had 94 points in 82 games (1.14 points per game). Marner’s $10.9-million AAV will be touted by the Robertson camp as relevant, but it seems to be a deal that has later been viewed as an outlier given Marner’s lower goal totals, so the Rantanen deal is probably one that the parties will find more common ground on viewing as a comparable. In the final analysis, there are many factors that go into a negotiation that outside parties aren’t always privy to, so I don’t like to peg numbers too rigidly. Maybe the Stars can still get something like that accomplished by appealing to Robertson to accept less to help continue building around him. Brady Tkachuk’s seven-year, $8.2 million-per-year deal in 2021 also fits into the equation, although Tkachuk’s value isn’t necessarily measured in goals and assists. With the production Robertson has shown and the positive trend line over his three entry-level years, signing him for three years at $7 million per season would be a good deal for Dallas. A month ago, the Stars might have been able to justify getting Robertson signed to a more modest long-term contract, such as the seven-year, $7.14-million-per-season deal the Jets gave to Kyle Connor or the eight-year deal Clayton Keller got in Arizona at a $7.15-million AAV. However, after the recent dominant run of play by Robertson, his points per game looks like it will vastly exceed what those players brought to the negotiating table. Robertson is 22 years old and in the final year of his entry-level contract. If the Stars are prepared to go with a longer term, as they probably should given the leadership role Robertson will play on their team going forward, the comparables have even bigger tickets. Kaprizov had played just one season in the NHL at the time of signing, and it was the abbreviated 56-game 2020-21 season, so a true comparison requires extrapolating his totals over a full 82-game season. It works out to approximately 40 goals, while Aho had 30 goals in his platform year. That’s rare production, even considering some of the young talent that has come through the league in recent years. Robertson turned in a masterful performance, recording the NHL’s first back-to-back hat tricks since Alex Ovechkin accomplished the feat in January 2020.